The British government doesn’t want to talk about its nuclear weapons. The British public does via Bulletin of Atomic Scientists

Posted on 2023/04/06 by nfield

By Tim Street, Harry Spencer, Shane Ward | April 6, 2023

In January 2023 British Pugwash and the polling company Savanta conducted a survey of UK public opinion on nuclear weapons issues and potential support for policies that advance nuclear arms control, disarmament, and non-proliferation.

[…]

Use of nuclear weapons. The UK government’s policy is to consider using nuclear weapons “only in extreme circumstances of self-defence, including the defence of our NATO allies.” UK and NATO policy does not rule out the first use of nuclear weapons.

Our poll found that 48 percent of UK adults oppose the first use of nuclear weapons by the United Kingdom, and only 40 percent support first use. This finding builds on the results of the survey British Pugwash conducted in 2021, which found that two-thirds of the British public want NATO to renounce the first use of nuclear weapons.

Replacing nuclear weapons. The United Kingdom is replacing all four parts of its nuclear weapons system: submarines, missiles, warheads, and associated infrastructure. The estimated cost of the four new nuclear-armed submarines is £31 billion (about $38 billion), and the estimated total cost of replacing nuclear weapons between 2019 and 2070 is at least £172 billion ($212 billion).

Our poll found that 42 percent of UK adults think the estimated cost of replacing the UK’s nuclear weapons does not represent value for money.

Stationing US nuclear weapons in the United Kingdom. The UK government has previously allowed US nuclear weapons and nuclear-capable aircraft to be stored, maintained, and operated from UK military bases. Although the United Kingdom has not hosted US nuclear weapons since 2008, in April 2022 an analysis of US Defense Department documents reported that a facility at the Royal Air Force’s Lakenheath base in Suffolk—which is used by the US Air Force—was being upgraded, potentially allowing the United States to again deploy nuclear weapons there.

British public opinion is split over allowing the United States to deploy nuclear weapons on UK territory. Our poll found that 34 percent of UK adults oppose, and 32 percent support, stationing US nuclear weapons in the United Kingdom.

Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. In 2017, 122 states voted in support of the Treaty, which prohibits the development, testing, production, acquisition, possession, stockpiling, and use of nuclear weapons, as well as any threat to use them. The United Kingdom has not signed or ratified the treaty. To join the treaty, the country would have to dismantle its nuclear arsenal or present a legally binding plan to do so.

Our poll found that 39 percent of UK adults support joining the ban treaty. Among 18- to 34-year-olds, 48 percent support joining the treaty, and only 13 percent are opposed.

Nuclear weapons possession. The United Kingdom is one of only nine countries possessing nuclear weapons. Our poll found that 40 percent of UK adults are in favor of possession. Women are far less likely than men to support UK possession (28 percent of women, compared with 53 percent of men). Some 27 percent of UK adults oppose UK nuclear possession, 29 percent neither support nor oppose nuclear possession, and 5 percent said they “don’t know” in response to this question.

Our poll also found that a minority of UK adults (39 percent) fully support the government’s decision to increase the UK’s nuclear warhead stockpile cap.

Even among supporters of nuclear possession, we found significant concerns about the government’s approach to nuclear weapons. For example, 23 percent of those who support nuclear possession don’t think the estimated cost of replacing the UK’s nuclear weapons represents value for money.

Furthermore, 38 percent of those who support UK nuclear possession do not want the military to use nuclear weapons first in a conflict. Notably, 35 percent of those who currently support the possession of nuclear weapons also want the United Kingdom to join the international ban treaty that would eliminate the country’s nuclear arsenal.

War in Ukraine. Our data indicate that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has significantly strengthened support for UK possession of nuclear weapons among those who already favored possession. Two-thirds of those who support nuclear possession said the conflict strengthened their position on this issue.

We also saw increases in support for nuclear weapons possession among those who otherwise oppose nuclear possession. In our poll, 16 percent of those who oppose UK possession of nuclear weapons said the Ukraine conflict had increased their support for possession.

Responses to this particular question likely reflect wider public support for UK involvement in the Ukraine conflict and may thus be temporary. Moreover, 39 percent of UK adults said the Ukraine conflict had “made no difference” to their view on UK nuclear possession. Overall, our data suggest that a key impact of the Ukraine war has been to reinforce support for UK nuclear possession among UK adults who already held this view.

Uncertainty and ambivalence. Nearly a third of respondents gave an “on the fence” answer to several of the questions posed. For example, 29 percent said they did not support or oppose the UK’s possession of nuclear weapons; 30 percent said they neither support nor oppose the rise in the nuclear warhead stockpile cap; 28 percent said they neither support nor oppose US nuclear weapons again being stationed in the United Kingdom; and 29 percent said they “don’t know” or are “unsure” whether the estimated cost of the UK nuclear weapons replacement program represents value for money.

These findings indicate that there is significant uncertainty about, and ambivalence toward, nuclear weapons among UK adults.

Why our survey matters. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the risk of nuclear war involving the major powers has risen significantly. Any use of nuclear weapons would have extremely severe consequences for the world. The United Kingdom is a nuclear weapon state, plays a leading role in NATO, and is strongly supportive of—and deeply involved in—US global strategy, to which nuclear deterrence is central. The United Kingdom thus has an important role in maintaining the global nuclear order, and a commensurate responsibility to reduce nuclear threats and advance disarmament. Yet, as noted above, the UK government is engaged in a huge and costly nuclear rearmament program, is increasing its nuclear warhead stockpile cap, and has renounced transparency for its nuclear operations in its Integrated Review of 2021.

London is also providing extensive military support to Kyiv, both to help Ukraine defeat Russia and to weaken Moscow’s ability to undertake future military operations. However, the unpredictable nature of the war means that the risk of it escalating to a wider conflict between Russia and NATO, including the possible use of nuclear weapons, is very real. The president and secretary general of Pugwash have therefore called on the major powers to focus on diplomacy to attain a ceasefire, and “to start and conclude a negotiating process … aimed at avoiding further strife in order to ensure a lasting peace in the whole region.”

[…]

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New images from inside Fukushima reactor spark safety worry via Daily Mail

Posted on 2023/04/06 by nfield

TOKYO (AP) – Images captured by a robotic probe inside one of the three melted reactors at Japan’s wrecked Fukushima nuclear power plant showed exposed steel bars in the main supporting structure and parts of its thick external concrete wall missing, triggering concerns about its earthquake resistance in case of another major disaster.

The plant’s operator, Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, has been sending robotic probes inside the Unit 1 primary containment chamber since last year. The new findings released Tuesday were from the latest probe conducted at the end of March.

An underwater remotely operated vehicle named ROV-A2 was sent inside the Unit 1 pedestal, a supporting structure right under the core. It came back with images seen for the first time since an earthquake and tsunami crippled the plant 12 years ago. The area inside the pedestal is where traces of the melted fuel can most likely be found.

[…]


An approximately five-minute video – part of 39-hour-long images captured by the robot – showed that the 120-centimeter (3.9-foot) -thick concrete exterior of the pedestal was significantly damaged near its bottom, exposing the steel reinforcement inside.

[…]


An approximately five-minute video – part of 39-hour-long images captured by the robot – showed that the 120-centimeter (3.9-foot) -thick concrete exterior of the pedestal was significantly damaged near its bottom, exposing the steel reinforcement inside.

About 880 tons of highly radioactive melted nuclear fuel remain inside the three reactors. Robotic probes have provided some information, but the status of the melted debris is still largely unknown. The amount is about 10 times the damaged fuel that was removed in the cleanup of the Three Mile Island nuclear plant in the United States after its 1979 partial core meltdown.

Fukushima Gov. Masao Uchibori urged TEPCO to “swiftly evaluate levels of earthquake resistance and provide information in a way prefectural residents can easily understand and relieve concern of the residents and people around the country.”

The video taken by the robot also showed equipment that slipped down as well as other types of debris, possibly nuclear fuel that fell from the core and hardened, piling up as high as 40-50 centimeters (1.3-1.6 feet) from the bottom of the primary containment chamber, Matsuo said. The pile is lower than the mounds seen in images taken in previous internal probes at two other reactors, suggesting that the meltdowns in each reactor may have progressed differently, company officials said.

Matsuo said the data collected from the latest probe will help experts come up with methods of removing the debris and analyze the 2011 meltdowns. TEPCO also plans to use the data to create a three-dimensional map of melted fuel and debris details, which would take about a year.

Based on data collected from earlier probes and simulations, experts have said most of the melted fuel inside Unit 1 fell to the bottom of the primary containment chamber, but some might have even fallen through into the concrete foundation – a situation that makes the already daunting task of decommissioning extremely difficult.

Trial removal of melted debris is expected to begin in Unit 2 later this year after a nearly two-year delay. Spent fuel removal from the Unit 1 reactor’s cooling pool is to start in 2027 after a 10-year delay. Once all the spent fuel is removed from the pools, the focus is to turn in 2031 to taking melted debris out of the reactors.

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Man who lived life of ‘Barefoot Gen’ irked Hiroshima will no longer use manga at schools via The Mainichi

Posted on 2023/03/27 by nfield

IIZUKA, Fukuoka — With a heavy heart, an A-bomb survivor, who grew up just like the children depicted in the manga “Barefoot Gen,” shared his disappointment over the city of Hiroshima’s decision to remove the work from educational material at schools.

Hiroshi Sugibayashi, 78, who lives in Iizuka, Fukuoka Prefecture, was among the “hibakusha” children who lived through the U.S. atomic bombing of Hiroshima. He spent his days begging for snacks from American soldiers with his friends, leading the same life as the main character of “Barefoot Gen,” which is based on the experiences of the late author Keiji Nakazawa.

Scenes from the manga, such as the character Gen being torn from his family due to the attack and Gen catching a carp from a pond so his mother could receive nutrition, are used in peace education material at Hiroshima’s municipal schools. There were voices questioning the manga’s appropriateness as school material, with some saying the scene where Gen “steals” the carp from another person’s home may lead to misunderstanding. The city of Hiroshima’s education board decided to stop using the manga as part of major curriculum revisions for the 2023 school year.

Sugibayashi said, “It’s not the kind of life that others would have a high opinion of, but we were desperate to survive. My current wish is for the manga to not be erased, as someone who lived the life of Gen.”

When the U.S. military dropped the atomic bomb on Hiroshima on Aug. 6, 1945, Sugibayashi was around six months old. According to his mother and others, there was a dreadful flash of light as he was blown away in an explosive blast together with his mother who was carrying him. They were 1.2 kilometers from the hypocenter. His mother suffered severe burns all over her body, while Sugibayashi also sustained a scald on his head. His 16-year-old sister, who went to the munitions factory near the hypocenter, passed away.

After World War II, Sugibayashi began to play with his friends near the Atomic Bomb Dome. This was in his later years of elementary school. The area was bustling with U.S. servicemen who were traveling from the Iwakuni base, mainly on the weekends. Sugibayashi and his friends jeered at any serviceman in sight, mixing English with Japanese, as they were taught by older members. Using an onomatopoeia indicating the flash and noise of the atomic bomb, they said, “Pikadon’s left us hungry.” He also showed them the scar on the back of his head, telling them, “hibakusha.”

In response, the U.S. servicemen gave out chocolate and gum, and sometimes even money. An older friend told him, “They killed tens of thousands of people with the A-bomb. We deserve this.” Recalling the past, Sugibayashi also said, “I also lost my older sister to the atomic bomb, and this was the best I could do in terms of revenge, and even as a child, I felt like I was able to take vengeance.”

Nearly 30 years later, Sugibayashi, who had moved to Fukuoka, saw scenes from the manga “Barefoot Gen,” which his son brought back home from school as part of a peace educational course. Sugibayashi was astonished to find scenes of kids approaching the Americans before the A-bomb Dome, prompting him to think, “This is written about me.” He was also certain that the older kid who taught him how to speak English was the manga’s author Keiji Nakazawa.

After cooperating with the creation of a collection of hibakusha testimonies issued by Fukuoka Prefecture’s FCo-op consumer cooperative in 2018, he began to speak about this episode with those around him.

The Hiroshima city education board stated it will remove “Barefoot Gen” from school material as “a partial extract of the work makes it difficult to convey the true nature of the atomic bombing.” According to the education board, as of March 16, it received opinions opposing the move, as well as demands to withdraw the decision, in around 200 cases in about one month.

On his boyhood, Sugibayashi admitted, “there were probably aspects of my way of living that weren’t earnest, and I have my regrets.” At the same time, he seemed despondent, saying, “I was desperate to get by, and this life of mine was also that of Gen. I feel as if our lives were rejected.” On top of all this, he said, “I can talk about episodes from that time. […]

(Japanese original by Emi Aoki, Kyushu News Department)

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Court rejects residents’ call to halt Ehime Prefecture nuclear reactor　via Japan Times

Posted on 2023/03/25 by nfield

HIROSHIMA – The Hiroshima High Court on Friday rejected local residents’ call to halt the operation of an idled nuclear reactor in western Japan, upholding a lower court decision.

The ruling will allow the operator, Shikoku Electric Power, to continue utilizing the No. 3 reactor at the Ikata nuclear power plant in Ehime Prefecture, which has been suspended for a regular inspection through June 19.

The appeal was filed by seven residents of Hiroshima and Ehime prefectures who live between 60 and 130 kilometers from the reactor.

The main focal point of the trial was whether the estimate of seismic ground motion, a key factor in a reactor’s quake-resistance design, made by the utility was appropriate.

During court hearings, the residents said the operator’s estimate was inadequate, arguing that a major accident could occur in the event of a powerful earthquake similar to one that devastated northeastern Japan in March 2011.

[…]

In November 2021, the Hiroshima District Court dismissed a request by the residents to suspend the reactor, saying that merely citing the magnitude of earthquakes measured across the country does not indicate a similar earthquake will hit the area.

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What is the uranium-based ammunition the UK is sending to Ukraine? via PBS News Hour

Posted on 2023/03/25 by nfield

By Tara Copp, Associated Press

[…]

Depleted uranium is a byproduct of the uranium enrichment process needed to create nuclear weapons. The rounds retain some radioactive properties, but they can’t generate a nuclear reaction like a nuclear weapon would, RAND nuclear expert and policy researcher Edward Geist said.

[…]

“It’s so dense and it’s got so much momentum that it just keeps going through the armor — and it heats it up so much that it catches on fire,” Geist said.

When fired, a depleted uranium munition becomes “essentially an exotic metal dart fired at an extraordinarily high speed,” RAND senior defense analyst Scott Boston said.

In the 1970s, the U.S. Army began making armor-piercing rounds with depleted uranium and has since added it to composite tank armor to strengthen it. It also has added depleted uranium to the munitions fired by the Air Force’s A-10 close air support attack plane, known as the tank killer. The U.S. military is still developing depleted uranium munitions, notably the M829A4 armor-piercing round for the M1A2 Abrams main battle tank, Boston said.

[…]

NOT A BOMB, BUT STILL A RISK

While depleted uranium munitions are not considered nuclear weapons, their emission of low levels of radiation has led the U.N. nuclear watchdog to urge caution when handling and warn of the possible dangers of exposure.

The handling of such ammunition “should be kept to a minimum and protective apparel (gloves) should be worn,” the International Atomic Energy Agency cautions, adding that “a public information campaign may, therefore, be required to ensure that people avoid handling the projectiles.

“This should form part of any risk assessment and such precautions should depend on the scope and number of ammunitions used in an area.”

The IAEA notes that depleted uranium is mainly a toxic chemical, as opposed to a radiation hazard. Particles in aerosols can be inhaled or ingested, and while most would be excreted again, some can enter the blood stream and cause kidney damage.

“High concentrations in the kidney can cause damage and, in extreme cases, renal failure,” the IAEA says.

The low-level radioactivity of a depleted uranium round “is a bug, not a feature” of the munition, Geist said, and if the U.S. military could find another material with the same density but without the radioactivity it would likely use that instead.

Depleted uranium munitions were used in the 1991 Gulf War against Iraq’s T-72 tanks and again in the invasion of the country in 2003, as well as in Serbia and in Kosovo. U.S. military veterans of those conflicts have questioned whether their use led to ailments they now face.

Vyacheslav Volodin, the speaker of the Russian parliament’s lower house, said supplies of rounds containing depleted uranium could lead to “a tragedy on a global scale that will primarily affect European countries.”

Volodin said the use of such U.S. ammunition in the former Yugoslavia and Iraq led to “radioactive contamination and a sharp rise in oncological diseases.”

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Britain defends supplying Ukraine with weapons containing depleted uranium via the New York Times

Posted on 2023/03/25 by nfield

Britain on Wednesday defended its decision to supply Ukraine with weapons made with depleted uranium, a day after President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia falsely claimed the material had a “nuclear component.”

Britain’s government has confirmed that it would provide Ukraine with armor-piercing shells that contain depleted uranium, alongside its Challenger 2 tanks, which use them. Depleted uranium is a standard component in conventional anti-armor weapons that NATO countries have used for decades, and Britain said in a statement that the ammunition it was providing had nothing to do with nuclear weapons.

The density of depleted uranium makes it an effective material for piercing heavy armor on the battlefield, and is used by many militaries. Among them are Russia’s, which upgraded its main battle tank to add the ability to fire depleted uranium shells, the Tass state news agency reported in 2018.

[…]

Uranium, a heavy metal, must be enriched to be used for nuclear purposes. Depleted uranium, which is about two and a half times denser than steel, is a byproduct of that enrichment, still radioactive but at a much lower level.

[…]

The Pentagon has also deemed depleted uranium safe, though after the U.S. military used it in Iraq, some activists and others connected it to birth defects and cancers. Numerous studies have been conducted on a possible link, without firm conclusions.

In 2013, Britain’s Ministry of Defense downplayed any health or environmental risks related to the use of depleted uranium. In a paper, it said that while the dust released on impact can sometimes be a health hazard, “all the research to date indicates that these circumstances are extremely unlikely to occur, and, if they do, will only affect very small groups who will be at much greater risk from the other hazards associated with armed conflict.”

[…]

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A Nuclear Plant That Leaked 400,000 Gallons of Radioactive Water Will Be Shut Down After Second Incident via NBC News

Posted on 2023/03/25 by nfield

Erik Ortiz/NBC News

The owner of one of Minnesota’s two nuclear power plants said it will temporarily power down the facility Friday to repair a recurring leak of radioactive water discovered this week, occurring as state regulators had been monitoring the effects of an initial spill four months ago.

While Xcel Energy said in a news release Thursday that there is “no risk to the public or the environment” with the latest incident at the Monticello Nuclear Generating Plant, the city said it would test the municipal water supply out of precaution.

[…]

But some Monticello residents surrounding the plant — located 38 miles northwest of Minneapolis and upstream of the Mississippi River — say they have concerns about what a recurring leak presents and the delay in finding out about the initial spill.

“I think the general public needs to be informed more about this,” said Megan Sanborn, 31, who lives 6 miles upstream from the nuclear plant.

“My children go to school 2 miles downstream from the power plant,” she added. “If the water levels were safe the entire time like they were saying, then where was the transparency?”

[…]

In late February, the city was informed about the leak. But it wasn’t until March 16 when state officials told the public and Xcel Energy announced it had been taking steps to contain and manage the leak over the past four months.

“After the company told the state, it was a hush-hush situation,” Sanborn said. “No one from the state let residents know we had a nuclear leak, and when we don’t have the ability to overcome a potential impact because no one told us, that’s a big concern for residents.”

[…]

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A Nuclear Power Plant Leaked Contaminated Water in Minnesota. Here’s What We Know via NPR

Posted on 2023/03/20 by nfield


Minnesota officials are monitoring the cleanup of a 400,000 gallon leak of contaminated water from a nuclear power plant in the city of Monticello run by the energy giant Xcel Energy. Officials said there is no danger from the leak.

The leak was detected nearly four months ago and reported to state and federal regulators. The federal Nuclear Regulatory Commission posted a notice publicly at the time, but the company and state agencies did not notify the general public until last week.

“Xcel Energy took swift action to contain the leak to the plant site, which poses no health and safety risk to the local community or the environment,” the company announced in a statement on Thursday. Ongoing monitoring has confirmed that the leak “is fully contained on-site and has not been detected beyond the facility or in any local drinking water,” the company said.

Xcel confirmed the leak of water containing tritium in November 2022 and notified officials the same day, according to the company’s announcement. Officials attributed the leak to a water pipe running between two buildings at the plant site. The amount of contaminated water that leaked out is enough to fill an Olympic-sized swimming pool about 60% full.

[…]

“Many operating nuclear plants have had some level of tritium leakage at some point during their operations,” Nygard said.

Michael Rafferty, a spokesperson for the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, told NPR the agency waited to get more information before announcing it to the public.

“Minnesota state agencies are deeply committed to our role in protecting human health and the environment and take seriously our responsibility to promptly inform the public when a situation presents any sort of current or imminent risk,” Rafferty said. “The situation at Xcel Energy’s Monticello site did not — and still does not — present an imminent threat to residents’ health.”

Officials with the federal Nuclear Regulatory Commission did not immediately respond to requests for comment. A spokesperson for the NRC, Victoria Mitlyng, told a local news station that the public’s concern was “very understandable,” and emphasized that “the public in Minnesota, the people, the community near the plant, was not and is not in danger.”

What is tritium?

Tritium is a naturally occurring form of hydrogen that emits a weak form of radiation, which can’t travel far in air or penetrate skin, according to the NRC.

Tritium is also a byproduct of producing electricity in nuclear power plants, and the dose of tritium that comes from nuclear power plants is much lower than exposures from radiation present in the natural environment, according to the NRC. Xcel said the tritium levels in the leaked water were below NRC safety thresholds.

“Everyone is exposed to small amounts of tritium every day, because it occurs naturally in the environment and the foods we eat,” according to an NRC fact sheet.

Any radiation exposure can pose some health risk, including increased occurrence of cancer. The risks of exposure are linear, meaning lower levels of radiation pose lower risk.

Eating or drinking food or water with tritium in it is the most common way it enters the body. It can also be absorbed through the skin. About half of it leaves the body within 10 days after exposure.

The cleanup will take months

Xcel says it has recovered about 25% of the tritium-contaminated water that leaked, and recovery efforts will continue over the course of the next year.

“While this leak does not pose a risk to the public or the environment, we take this very seriously and are working to safely address the situation,” Chris Clark, president of Xcel Energy–Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota, said in the company’s statement. “We continue to gather and treat all potentially affected water while regularly monitoring nearby groundwater sources.”

To contain the leak, the water is being diverted to a treatment system inside the plant, which prevents water from leaving the plant. Xcel said it also inspected all of its piping to ensure this wasn’t also happening elsewhere in the facility.

The Minnesota Pollution Control Agency said Xcel is considering building above ground storage tanks or installing a retention pond to store the water containing tritium that has been recovered, as well as considering treatment, reuse and disposal options. Minnesota regulators will review any options the company selects, MPCA said.

“Our top priority is protecting residents and the environment, and the MPCA is working closely with other state agencies to oversee Xcel Energy’s monitoring data and cleanup activities,” said Kirk Koudelka, MPCA assistant commissioner for land and strategic initiatives. “We are working to ensure this cleanup is concluded as thoroughly as possible with minimal or no risk to drinking water supplies.”

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　事故後12年の原発政策　根拠薄弱な方針転換だ

Posted on 2023/03/12 by nfield

via 佐賀新聞

巨大地震と津波が世界最悪クラスの原発事故を引き起こした日から１２年。われわれは今年、この日をこれまでとは全く違った状況の中で迎えることになった。

　「２０３０年代に原発稼働ゼロを可能とするよう、あらゆる政策資源を投入する」とした民主党政権の政策は、自民党政権下で後退したものの、原発依存度は「可能な限り低減する」とされていた。岸田文雄首相はさしたる議論もないままこの政策を大転換し、原発の最大限の活用を掲げた。

　今なお、収束の見通しが立っていない悲惨な事故の経験と、この１２年間で大きく変わった世界のエネルギーを取り巻く情勢とを無視した「先祖返り」ともいえるエネルギー政策の根拠は薄弱で、将来に大きな禍根を残す。今年の３月１１日を、事故の教訓やエネルギーを取り巻く現実に改めて目を向け、政策の軌道修正を進める契機とするべきだ。

　ロシアのウクライナ侵攻が一因となったエネルギー危機や化石燃料使用がもたらした気候危機に対処するため、原発の活用が重要だというのが政策転換の根拠だ。

　だが、東京電力福島第１原発事故は、大規模集中型の巨大な電源が一瞬にして失われることのリスクがいかに大きいかを示した。小規模分散型の再生可能エネルギーを活用する方がこの種のリスクは小さいし、深刻化する気候危機に対しても強靱（きょうじん）だ。昨年、フランスでは熱波の影響で冷却ができなくなり、多くの原発が運転停止を迫られたことは記憶に新しい。

　原発が気候危機対策に貢献するという主張の根拠も薄弱だ。気候危機に立ち向かうためには、２５年ごろには世界の温室効果ガス排出を減少に向かわせ、３０年までに大幅な削減を実現することが求められている。原発の新増設はもちろん、再稼働も、これにはほとんど貢献しない。計画から発電開始までの時間が短い再エネの急拡大が答えであることは世界の常識となりつつある。

　岸田首相の新方針は、時代遅れとなりつつある原発の活用に多大な政策資源を投入する一方で、気候危機対策の主役である再エネ拡大のための投資や制度改革には見るべきものがほとんどない。

　この１２年の間、安全対策などのために原発のコストは上昇傾向にある一方で、再エネのコストは急激に低下した。原発の運転期間を延ばせば、さらなる老朽化対策が必要になる可能性もあるのだから、原発の運転期間延長も発電コスト削減への効果は極めて限定的だろう。

　透明性を欠く短時間の検討で、重大な政策転換を決めた手法も受け入れがたい。

　米ローレンスバークリー国立研究所などの研究グループは最近、蓄電池導入や送電網整備、政策の後押しなどにより日本で３５年に再エネの発電比率を７０～７７％まで増やせるとの分析を発表した。

[…]

いくらそれらしい理屈と言葉を並べ立てたとしても、科学的な根拠が薄く、決定過程に正当性のないエネルギー政策は、机上の空論に終わるだろう。（共同通信・井田徹治）

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＜社説＞新たな津波想定／命を守る行動捉え直す契機に via 神戸新聞

Posted on 2023/03/12 by nfield

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津波の新たな浸水想定は、２０１１年１２月に施行された「津波防災地域づくり法」に基づく。兵庫を含む４０都道府県で作る必要があり、東京都を除いて公表済みだ。

　３県の新想定は、数百～千年に１回と発生頻度は極めて低いものの、防潮堤が壊れ、満潮時などの悪条件が重なった場合を前提に、津波の高さや浸水範囲を試算した。

　新想定によると、浸水域の広さは岩手県で１００平方キロ、宮城県で３９１平方キロ、福島県で１３９平方キロに達する。３県合わせた浸水域の面積は東日本大震災時の約１・３倍に上る。各地で市町村の庁舎が浸水したり避難タワーが使えなくなったりするが、ハード対策に多額の追加費用を投じるのは困難な状況だ。

移転先も浸水の恐れ

　広大な浸水域から命をどう守るのか。復興まちづくりが一段落した段階で新たな対応を迫られる被災地の人々には割り切れない思いが強い。

　「行政が安全安心だという場所に自宅を再建したのに、今になって津波が来ると言われても、どうすればいいのか」。津波が襲い、約７５０人が犠牲になった宮城県名取市の閖上（ゆりあげ）地区で町内会長を務める長沼俊幸さん（６０）の疑問は尽きない。

　震災後、３メートルほどかさ上げして整備された市街地は海岸から約１・５キロ離れている。一戸建てと復興住宅などが混在し、約３１０世帯が暮らす。当初の市の浸水想定は「１メートル未満」で、近くの公民館か小中一貫校に逃げれば大丈夫と考えていた。

しかし、県が示した新想定では「３メートル以上５メートル未満」とされた。地区で最も高い６階建ての復興住宅の屋上へ「垂直避難」を検討するが、冬季夜間の避難は寒さによる低体温症のリスクが気がかりだ。

　長沼さんは「震災を経験していない新住民も増えている。国や県は浸水想定を公表するだけでなく、避難可能な屋内施設や訓練などの対策も示してほしい」と求める。市は住民説明会でハザードマップを見直す方針を示し「避難を優先し、命を守る行動を」と繰り返すばかりで、目立った進展はない。長沼さんの脳裏には１２年前の悪夢がよぎる。

避難ルールの徹底を

　東日本大震災では大津波警報の発令後も逃げなかった人がおり、被害拡大につながった。同じ過ちを決して繰り返してはならない。一人一人が避難できる場所やそこへ向かう手段を平時から確認しておきたい。

　注意しなければならないのが、避難時の車の使用だ。国は「徒歩避難が原則」としている。だが南海トラフ地震の津波が予想される兵庫など西日本各地でも、車での避難を「必要」と捉える自治体は多い。一方、避難計画で具体的なルールを定めている自治体はごく一部とされる。

　東日本では道路の被災や渋滞で逃げ遅れた例もある。自治体は地形など地域の特性も考慮して計画の実効性を担保し、住民の理解を得られるよう丁寧に説明すべきだ。高齢者や障害者ら支援が必要な人の避難対策の強化も欠かせない。

　「最悪」に備え、犠牲者を一人でも減らす。それにはやり残したことがまだある。自治体の負担を軽減する国の財政支援や地域防災計画の抜本的見直しも急がねばならない。

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Posted in *日本語 | Tagged , , | Comments Off on ＜社説＞新たな津波想定／命を守る行動捉え直す契機に via 神戸新聞