By Greg Russell
THE world has more than enough renewable energy potential to comfortably transition away from fossil fuels and achieve the 1.5C global warming target, while expanding energy access for all, according to scientists.
In their Fossil Fuel Exit Strategy, Dr Sven Teske and Dr Sarah Niklas show through detailed modelling that, even if no new fossil fuel projects were built from today, carbon emissions from existing projects are still far too high to stay on course towards meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement on climate change. Their modelling shows the world would produce significantly more fossil fuels than it can afford under the 1.5C goal by 2030, leading to 66% more emissions than is compatible with the target.
They say the world must actively wind down existing coal mines and oil and gas wells while increasing renewable energy.
The pair, from the Institute for Sustainable Futures, at the University of Technology, Sydney, say this transition is not only required but is feasible, with all regions having enough renewable energy to provide energy access to all using existing technologies.
Their strategy suggests the twin challenges of phasing out fossil fuels and increasing electricity access at the speed required can be achieved through the scaling up of renewable energy and an orderly wind down of coal, oil and gas.
The report comes after the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Net Zero by 2050 Roadmap, which said the world needs to stop investing in and expanding fossil fuels.
Teske and Niklas’s Fossil Fuel Exit Strategy goes further by finding it is also necessary to begin phasing down existing coal mines and oil and gas wells to have a chance of preventing catastrophic climate change.
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