Findings suggest the Royal Navy’s Faslane base on the Clyde may have to be closed down due to the high risk of inundation in coming years and the dangers that could present.
The Trident missile store at Coulport, also on the Clyde, and nuclear submarine scrapyard at Rosyth, on the Forth, are also likely to be affected by flooding due to a combination of rising sea level, higher rainfall and frequent storm surges, the analysis found.
Six further nuclear sites in England are also under threat.
The report, by Dr Paul Dorfman, a former Ministry of Defence (MoD) advisor and chair of the Nuclear Consulting Group think-tank, concludes “near-term climate change risk to nuclear is very great” and “UK nuclear military installations are on the front-line of climate change”.
The document states: “Present UK coastal military nuclear infrastructure is profoundly vulnerable to flooding from sea level rise, storm intensity and storm surge, with inland nuclear facilities also facing inundation and flooding.”
It warns there is also “significant risk” to stockpiles of military radioactive waste from “climate-drive extreme weather”.
The report points out that previous predictions have under-estimated the magnitude and pace of changes caused by rising world temperatures and claims government safety regulators have been “relatively complacent” about the threats in the past.